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Some Rural Hospitals Are In Such Bad Shape, Local Governments Are Practically Giving Them Away

Kyle Kopec gets a kick out of leading tours through the run-down hospitals his boss is snapping up, pointing out what he calls relics of poor management left by a revolving door of operators.

But there’s a point to exposing their state of disrepair — the company he works for, Braden Health, is buying buildings worth millions of dollars for next to nothing. At a hospital in this rural community about a 90-minute drive northwest from Nashville, the X-ray machine is beyond repair.

“This system is so old, it’s been using a floppy disk,” said Kopec, 23, marveling at the bendy black square that hardly has enough memory to hold a single digital photo. “I’ve never actually seen a floppy disk in use. I’ve seen them in the Smithsonian.”

Not only is Kopec young, he had limited work experience in hospitals before helping lead a buying spree by Braden Health. His prior work experience includes a three-month stint as an intern in the Trump White House, on assignment through his volunteer position in the U.S. Coast Guard Auxiliary. He worked his way through college at Braden Health’s clinic in Ave Maria, Florida, and became a protégé of Dr. Beau Braden, the company’s founder. Now Kopec’s official title is chief compliance officer, second in command to Braden.

The hospitals Braden Health is taking over sit in one of the worst spots in one of the worst states for rural hospital closures. Tennessee has experienced 16 closures since 2010 — second only to the far more populous state of Texas, which has had at least 21 closures.

The local governments that own these facilities are finding that remarkably few companies — with any level of experience — are interested in buying them. And those that are willing don’t want to pay much, if anything.

“When you’re on the ropes or even got your head under water, it’s really difficult to negotiate with any terms of strength,” said Michael Topchik, director of the Chartis Center for Rural Health, which tracks distressed rural hospitals closely. “And so you, oftentimes, are choosing whoever is willing to choose you. At this point, large health systems have acquired or affiliated with the hospitals that have the fewest problems. And what’s left has been picked over by operators, some of which have gotten in trouble with insurers and even law enforcement for shady billing practicesYou can make it profitable. But it takes an awful lot to get there.”

Braden, an emergency room doctor and addiction specialist, used his savings and inherited wealth to get into the hospital-buying business in 2020. Previously, he tried to build a hospital in southwestern Florida, where he owns the large rural clinic in Ave Maria. After running into regulatory roadblocks, he saw more opportunity in reopening hospitals — which brought him to Tennessee.

Braden Health’s corporate headquarters has 40 employees, according to Kopec. It’s a limited liability company and privately held, so it doesn’t have to publicly share much about its financial figures. But in filings for a certificate of need that outlines why a health care facility should be allowed to operate, Braden revealed $2 million in monthly revenue from the one hospital it ran in Lexington, Tennessee, and its balance sheet showed more than $7.5 million cash on hand.

Since buying that Lexington hospital in 2020, Braden Health has signed deals for three other failing or failed hospitals and has looked at acquiring at least 10 others, mostly in Tennessee and North Carolina. Braden Health’s strategy is to build mini-networks to share staff and supplies.

At the hospital in Erin, much of the facility’s equipment is older than Kopec. And he said using outdated technology has caused Medicare to penalize the hospital with reduced payments.

The attic houses a ham radio system that seemingly never got much use, Kopec said on his way out to the roof. He wanted to show how the giant HVAC system can be controlled only from a rusty side panel accessible by a ladder. Down below, an emergency room has never been used. During a recent renovation that predated Braden Health’s ownership, its doors were built too narrow for a gurney, among other design flaws.

An old operating room is temporarily housing the ER while Braden Health starts work on new renovations. The Tennessee attorney general, who must approve any sale of a public hospital to private investors, signed off in July.

To prevent this hospital’s closure in 2013, Houston County bought it for $2.4 million and raised taxes locally to subsidize operations.

“We had no business being in the hospital business,” Mayor James Bridges said. “The majority of county governments do not have the expertise and the education and knowledge that it takes to run health care facilities in 2022.”

Those with the most experience, like big corporate hospital chains based in Nashville, have been getting out of the small hospital business, too.

Communities have seen unqualified managers come and go. In Decatur County, where Braden Health is also taking over the local hospital, the previous CEO was indicted on theft charges that remain pending. And the Tennessee comptroller determined the hospital helped endanger the finances of the entire county.

“You’re looking to someone who supposedly knows what to do, who can supposedly solve the issue. And you trust them, then you’re disappointed,” said Lori Brasher, a member of Decatur County’s economic development board. “And not disappointed once, but disappointed multiple times.”

Brasher expressed much more confidence in Braden Health, which she said has concrete plans to reopen, though the timing has been delayed by an unresolved insurance claim from a burst water line that flooded a wing of the hospital.

Local residents still have trouble stomaching the sticker price: $100 for a property valued at $1.4 million by the local tax assessor. In addition to that low price, Braden Health won tax breaks for committing to invest $2 million into the building.

The Houston County hospital is valued at $4.1 million by the property assessor. But the final sale price was just $20,000 — and that wasn’t for the land or the building. Kopec said the amount was for a 2016 ambulance with 180,000 miles — deemed the only equipment with any remaining value.

An agreement with Braden Health to take over the shuttered hospital in Haywood County, Tennessee, valued at $4.6 million, was a similarly symbolic payment. All told, Braden Health is getting more than $10 million worth of real estate for less than the price of an appendectomy.

Kopec contends the value for each property is essentially negative given that the hospitals require so much investment to comply with health care standards and — according to the company’s purchase agreements — must be run as hospitals. If not, the hospitals revert to the counties.

Most of the funding for restoring these facilities comes directly from Braden, who thinks people overestimate the value of hospitals his company is taking over.

“If you look honestly at a lot of transactions that take place with rural hospitals and how many liabilities are tied up with them, there’s really not a lot of value there,” Braden said.

Braden recently paid off a $2.3 million debt with Medicare for the Houston County hospital. He said there’s no secret sauce, in his mind, except that small hospitals require just as much diligence as big medical centers — especially since their profit margins are so thin and patient volume so low. He wants to improve technology in ways that health plans reward hospitals, limit nurse staffing when business is slow, and watch medical supply inventories to cut waste.

“A lot of people aren’t willing to put in the time, effort, energy, and work for a small hospital with less than 25 beds. But it needs just as much time, energy, and effort as a hospital with 300 beds,” Braden said. “I just see there’s a huge need in rural hospitals and not a lot of people who can focus their time doing it.”

It’s a tall order. Braden said he can understand any skepticism, even from the hospitals’ employees. They’ve heard turnaround promises before, and even they can be wary of the care they’d get at such run-down facilities.

Still, as Kopec bounced through the Erin hospital’s halls, he greeted nurses and clerical staff by name with a confidence that belies his age and experience. He tells anyone who will listen that rural hospitals require specialized knowledge.

“They’re not the most complicated things in the world,” Kopec said. “But if you don’t know exactly how to run them, you’re just going to run them straight into the ground.”

 

Source: News-Medical Life Sciences

Riding The Wave Of Surging MOB Demand

In a country where over 10,000 people turn 65 daily, it’s safe to say that an aging population will drive the demand for healthcare resources for years to come.

Healthcare Trust of America (NYSE:HTA) is a real estate investment trust that seeks to not only ride the irresistible wave of current demographic trends, but also aims to carve out strong footholds in markets where high tenant quality can be secured and leveraged to more profitable relationships. As the largest dedicated owner/operator of medical office buildings (MOB’s) in the U.S.,

HTA is also well-positioned to benefit from the broad shift away from expensive inpatient facilities, and instead toward more cost-effective outpatient resources, as healthcare spending already projects to account for fully 20% of GDP by 2026.

HTA currently has lots of competition in the medical property space (not just from other REIT’s either) as the sector is one of the few areas where growth is almost guaranteed to exceed nominal GDP growth for years to come. This has pushed the price of related real estate assets sky high, and has been something of a double-edged sword, because profitability on leases takes a bit of a hit as profit margins are eaten away by the rising cost of asset purchases. Fortunately, HTA‘s focus on specific markets with strong demographic dynamics, its fully-integrated property development capabilities, and prudent cost management have all combined to insulate profits somewhat more than peers. Past is not necessarily prologue, however, and challenges from interest rate volatility to changing investor sentiment and MOB demand can affect spreads, margins, and FFO numbers. With respect to HTA, I’ll look at the company’s structure, competitive position, real estate portfolio, financial strength, and underlying fundamentals of the stock to help current and prospective investors assess whether HTA is a buy at current prices, and what the long-term outlook is for the company and the stock.

HTA company snapshot(Image source: HTA 2018 annual report)

Finding its Niche

As the single largest owner of MOB’s in the U.S., HTA‘s real estate portfolio comprises 23 million sq. feet of GLA (gross leasable area), having invested roughly $6.8 billion in those properties over the last 10 years. While the firm has considerable market breadth across the country, it does try to focus on 20-25 “gateway markets” where it seeks to “build critical mass,” especially in communities with universities and large extant medical institutions. The thinking is that this strategy presents not only favorable demographic trends for local demand, but also supply in the form of skilled-labor and job growth. Consequently, the company has already started to see some of the benefits via robust long-term demand for medical office management and leasing services. Overall, the firm has an integrated asset management model consisting of on-site leasing, property management, engineering and building services, and targeted real estate development. With a focus on operational efficiency and tenant quality, HTA has sought to build lasting relationships with dependable clients, and achieve real rental growth. Management hopes this combination will lead to peer-beating value-creation in the long-run.

HTA portfolio map(Image source: HTA investor presentation)

Founded in 2006 as a private REIT, HTA went public on the NYSE in 2012. Headquartered in Scottsdale, AZ, the firm has quickly expanded as it has not only emerged from the depths of the real estate and financial crash of 2007-8, but benefited from the growth of healthcare in general, and its own target markets in particular. This concentration in a few key markets has allowed the company to build strong competitive positions within those communities, and has actually led to relatively strong operating margins. Further, management’s focus on the firm’s financial strength and liquidity has allowed for continued investment and development, leading to accretive acquisitions and leasing relationships. Those strong tenant relationships foster increased margins, higher tenant retention, better leasing spreads, and more and better growth opportunities.

HTA d/a and d/e(Source: Author, Benjamin Black)

The operating platform consists of four main segments, including property management, maintenance services, leasing services, and construction & development. This multifaceted approach has allowed HTA to not only capitalize on leasing and property management fees, but also build its footprint through development and property investment. While 93% of the company’s overall GLA consists of in-house property, the top 20 markets comprise 75% of GLA as well, which is actually a 12% increase since 2013 (when it was 63%). What this shows, given HTA‘s ballooning real estate portfolio during this time period, is a strengthening position in the markets it chooses to focus on. The portfolio is increasingly concentrated in large and growing markets with high MOB demand, and top markets now include Dallas, Houston, and Boston, among other expanding metro areas with favorable demographics. Specifically, HTA targets strong same property cash NOI growth.

HTA portfolio(Image source: HTA investor presentation)

Growing the Portfolio

Since the end of 2013, HTA has doubled its portfolio in terms of GLA and property value (from $2.6 billion to $5.4 billion). Over this same period, leverage (net debt/EBITDAre) has remained fairly steady at a rate between 5 and 6X, falling at a respectable 5.8X in 2018. Cash from operations and use of the firm’s ATM equity program have largely financed the acquisitions. Solid enterprise value growth and normalized FFO growth of 27% (through 2018) help underscore the merits of a strategic focus on core-community, on-campus, and academic medical center locations. The economics and demographics of university-heavy cities favors MOB demand and related pricing. What sets HTA apart from peers is its vertically-integrated operating platform allowing it somewhat of a unique offering to customers. This has translated to success for investors in the underlying stock, as the REIT has outperformed not only broader REIT indices, but also the healthcare REIT index as well. Of course, this underlying performance does include some years as a private REIT, where returns are calculated mainly by factoring in total distributions over the period, but regardless, the 156% total return since ’06 compares favorably (bear in mind the period begins right around the height of the real estate bubble).

HTA real estate assets(Source: Author, Benjamin Black)

Healthcare delivery is expected to shift to more outpatient facilities over time due to it being more cost-effective than inpatient care. Additionally, limitations to existing hospital resources have further enhanced outpatient visit growth. In fact, inpatient visits have begun to decline in recent years, despite the growing demand for healthcare overall, which is especially beneficial to MOB operators. While demographic and industry dynamics favor the MOB REIT sector generally, HTA‘s laser-like focus on key “gateway” markets further drives growth and profitability. In addition to this, the consolidation of healthcare providers will likely lead to increased opportunities for MOB operators with scale (such as HTA).

HTA P/FFO(Source: Author, Benjamin Black)

MOB’s are desirable to providers because they help augment provider growth by helping to limit capital outlay/commitments by providing leasable properties, and also limit the volatility of cash-flows. The ability to develop synergistic and profitable relationships with strong providers depends greatly on location, barriers to entry, and operational efficiency of both the leaseholder and the property manager. That said, the MOB sector is especially fragmented, as less than 20% of the market is institutionally owned. Further, REIT’s only have an 11% share of the MOB market, which is less than private equity, developers, and providers themselves. Of that relatively small slice of the pie, however, HTA is fast becoming a dominant player.

Competitive Position

From 2012-2018, annualized FFO growth of 4.6% matches that of Welltower (NYSE:WELL), and is above peers H&R REIT (OTCPK:HRUFF) (3.3%), Ventas Inc., (NYSE:VTR) (1.2%), and Healthpeak Properties (NYSE:PEAK) (-1.7%). Same-property cash NOI growth, which I’ll refer to as SS (similar to same-store growth in retail), averaged 3% from 2013-2018, bested only by HRUFF (3.2%), and ahead of Physicians Realty Trust (NYSE:DOC) (2.6%), WELL (2.3%), VTR (1.4%), and PEAK (1.3%). Total shareholder returns meanwhile, have outpaced them all, coming in at 68% over the period (vs. a range of -6% to 54% for the previously mentioned companies).

MOB REIT returns(Image source: SEEKING ALPHA HTA STOCK PAGE)

PEAK (formerly HCP) in particular, has struggled over the last 5-6 years, and HTA may stand to benefit as a result. Note that in 2 of the last 4 quarters, SS growth fell below the REIT MOB average of 2.6%. Prior to that, from 2014-17, HTA grew cash NOI at a range between 2.8-3.3%. It has hit a low of 2.3% in 1Q18, but has since recovered to 2.7% as of 4Q18. The good news, however, is that since 2014, SS expenses for the company have actually declined, averaging -0.8% vs. an average of +0.9 to 3.4% for peers (including WELL, VTR, HCP, DOC, and HRUFF), which collectively averaged 1.75%. This disparity shows HTA‘s greater efficiency and cost management than peers. So, over the last 5-6 years overall, same-property figures look healthy, but keep an eye on the trend, and take special note of any further deterioration in NOI growth rates, or rising same-property expenses.

HTA SS-NOI growth(Image source: HTA investor presentation)

It’s important to note that the MOB sector (and healthcare real estate investment generally), is currently experiencing a period of record low cap rates. Cap (capitalization) rates are the ratio of net operating income (NOI) to property asset value, and such rates have fallen in recent years due to high investor demand and fast-rising property values. One major reason for this trend is that health-related real estate is seen as a sector of fairly reliable growth; in fact, total number of outpatient visits has grown by almost 2% annually between 1994-2014. By comparison, over the same period, inpatient admissions actually declined by 0.67% annually.

HTA EV/EBITDA(Source: Author, Benjamin Black)

Investor demand remains at an all-time high for healthcare real estate assets, and especially MOB’s, consequently pushing down cap rates and therefore profit margins and ROI expectations. Because healthcare is seen as one of the strongest drivers of economic growth in the U.S. going forward, investors continue to position their portfolios to reflect that trend. Total healthcare real estate volumes, though, stayed roughly the same for 2019 as 2018, mostly due to the lack of available properties, presenting an opportunity for profitable MOB development in key markets where demand is particularly robust.

And the Survey Says…

In a survey of medical real estate investors, CBRE showed that 94% of respondents favored MOB’s for acquisition, by far the highest of any building type (ambulatory surgery centers (ASC’s) were 2nd at 69%, for some perspective). These results further underscore the high continued demand for MOB’s, and the resultant tight supply-demand and pricing environment. Expected cap rates for MOB’s in 2019 are between 5-6%, which represents the lowest cap rates for all medical building/real estate investment categories, including ASC’s, wellness centers, LTC hospitals, rehab hospitals, etc. Only 2% of survey respondents felt that 2019 would see lower investor demand for MOB’s than 2018, and only 1% of respondents said that occupancy rates of their MOB portfolio had fallen from the prior year (99% said it was the same or higher). Generally, survey results show that the bulk of those asked see annual growth for medical office lease rents falling between 2-3%, largely reflective of inflation expectations and GDP growth.

Cap rates

MOB cap rates(Source for the above two images: HTA investor presentation and Hammond Hanlon Camp LLC 2018 MOB report, attached at the end of the article)

In 2018, the “tightening of the spread between sales and development capitalization rates (had) many developers on edge given the rising interest rate environment.” Fortunately, interest rates have actually fallen over the last year, as the Fed has lowered the Fed Funds Rate by 0.25% on three separate occasions in the TTM period. In the 24 months between the beginning of 2017 and the end of 2018, construction costs generally increased between 15-30% (depending on the market). Despite this surge, rental increases generally kept pace with rising construction costs, as the growing economy allowed developers to pass on rising costs. Additionally, cheap credit continues to augment market growth as loan-to-value ratios remain elevated at between 65-90%, and are increasingly occurring at the higher end of that range.

The Fundamental Picture

While the healthcare industry is clearly growing (average healthcare spending per person rose 11% in 2017 alone, for example), not all MOB operators are created equal, and not all markets are especially geared towards that sector’s growth. HTA with its university-centric market approach (it targets a portfolio composition of 68% of GLA from on-campus properties, and 32% off-campus), seems to have found a profitable niche. Growing its real estate assets from $1.7 billion to $5.7 billion from 2009-2019 (12.86% CAGR), HTA has greatly expanded its portfolio and simultaneously managed to grow its FFO from $28.8 million to $317.7 million, producing a CAGR of roughly 27%. Meanwhile, management has grown overall EBITDA from $61.3 million to $416.2 million (21.1% CAGR) over the same period.

HTA FFO(Source: Author, Benjamin Black)

While the annual dividend was higher in 2010 at $1.46 per share (vs. $1.24 in the TTM period), the FFO payout % was also much higher, at over 85% (vs. roughly 80% today). Dividends have increased annually since 2013, but at a compound annual growth rate of only 1.26%. The P/FFO ratio is just under 20 (at 19.8), and is reasonable, if not a screaming bargain. Reflecting on these numbers, HTA‘s focus is expanding its competitive position, showing very impressive top-line growth, but due to historically low cap rates and exploding real estate costs, that is not necessarily translating to stellar profit and dividend growth.

HTA dividends

HTA FFO payout %(Source for the above two graphs: author)

The Bottom Line

While HTA is well-positioned as a leader in the healthcare REIT sector, shareholder returns will likely remain muted while asset prices and earnings multiples remain high (relative to historic norms). That said, this is a company to consider adding to your watchlist, as it is a best-of-breed operator in a growing sector of the economy in the long run. It’s a great company, but a so-so stock at the moment. If HTA were to fall 20-30% over the next few months, however, (or basically flat-line over the next 2-3 years),  a reasonable and profitable entry-point would present itself, but wait for the underlying fundamentals to catch up to the price first.

*Most market and company-specific data drawn from HTA’s 2018 annual report or most recent investor presentation, found on the company’s investor website. Data used to construct graphs drawn from Seeking Alpha’s HTA stock page.

 

Source: Seeking Alpha

What Is Making The MOB Segment So Healthy?

Since 2012, annual revenues from the pharmaceutical industry have increased from nearly $200 billion to almost $300 billion in 2018. In the same period, single-tenant medical office transactions jumped from almost $1.5 billion in 2012 to $2.5 billion last year.

What is causing the significant increase in single-tenant medical office transactions along with the robust health-care market?

The simple answer is an aging population. There is no question that America is getting older. According to the United States Census Bureau, the number of Americans 65 years and older is expected to double over the next three decades. An aging population requires more drugs, more health-care professionals and  more space to deliver medical services. For investors in net lease properties, the medical office sector can provide a strong investment opportunity to ride this seemingly unstoppable trend.

First, the space is more accessible to a wider group of investors with an average transaction size of nearly $10 million in 2018 vs. over $20 million for the rest of the single-tenant office sector.

Secondly, medical office is commanding higher per-square-foot valuations than the net lease office sector overall, with buyers paying a 7 percent premium per square foot over non-medical assets. This reflects the robust demand and healthy market fundamentals, as investors can take comfort in owning a solidly performing medical office property that commands a strong valuation.

In an investor survey recently conducted by JLL, respondents’ interest in office assets leased to health-care-related tenants outpaced that of technology, business services, government and financial services. Investors who are targeting the health-care space in 2019 indicated they are allocating on average 20 percent of their capital towards medical office assets.

Additionally, apart from industrial assets, investors indicated that the health-care sector was the most likely to exhibit a decrease in cap rates in the remainder of the year. This, along with the other factors previously mentioned, has attracted a diversified and evenly distributed buyer population. Institutional and private investors as well as REITs have been putting money into this property type, which indicates the depth of investor interest across the spectrum of buyers. Broad investor interest and increased demand is expected to continue to put owners in a strong position to sell their investments at attractive valuations in the future.

Finally, the asset class on average commands lower cap rates than the rest of the single-tenant office space, due to the mission criticality of the real estate. Its cap rate is reflective of its dependable stream of income. On average, medical cap rates are 30 basis points lower than those in the office sector overall.

As net lease investors navigate the uncertainty of the retail sector, the medical office space appears poised to offer an alternative, with strong, dependable returns that are more difficult to disrupt with technology and the internet. As long-term trends in health care continue to point toward longer lifespans and increased care, medical office space will remain critical and demand will increase, providing opportunities for investors to capitalize on this unstoppable force: growing old.

 

Source: Commercial Property Executive